JEFAS Vol. 25 Nº 50 (2020)
URI permanente para esta colecciónhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12640/4138
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Ítem Solo Metadatos Causality and dynamic relationships between exchange rate and stock market indices in BRICS countries Panel/GMM and ARDL analyses(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2020-12-01) Mroua, Mourad; Trabelsi, LotfiPurpose: This paper aims to investigate simultaneously the causality and the dynamic links between exchange rates and stock market indices. It attempts to identify the short- and long-term effect of the US dollar on major stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South-Africa (BRICS) nations. Design/methodology/approach: This paper applies a new methodology combining the panel generalized method of moments model and the panel auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to investigate the existence of a causal short-/long-run relationships and dynamic dependence among all stock market returns and exchanges rates changes of BRICS countries. Findings: Results show that exchange rate changes have a significant effect on the past and the current volatility of the BRICS stock indices. Besides, ARDL estimations reveal that exchange rate movements have a significant effect on short- and long-term stocks market indices of all BRICS countries. Originality/value: The findings have implications for policymakers and market participants who try to manage the exchange rate will have a different dose of intervention if they know that the effects of currency depreciation are different than appreciation. These results have important implications that investors should take into account in frequency-varying exchange rates and stock returns and regulators should consider developing sound policy measures to prevent financial risk.
