The twin deficits hypothesis and reverse causality: A short-run analysis of Peru
| dc.contributor.author | Sobrino, César R. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2021-11-09T01:44:48Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2021-11-09T01:44:48Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2013-06-30 | |
| dc.description.abstract | This study examines causation between the current account and the fiscal surplus and fiscal spending for a commodity-based economy, Peru. Using quarterly data for the open economy, the outcomes reject the twin deficits hypothesis. Instead, the evidence points strongly to reverse causality, that is, the current account causes the fiscal account. However, unlike previous empirical evidence on this subject, for a year, the reverse causality indicates a negative causation because the fiscal consumption is not smoothed when positive permanent shocks to the current account occur. In the short run, the fiscal policy has no effect on the current account, but improvements in the current account increase the probability of attaining a lower bounded fiscal deficit. This evidence is consistent with a small open commodity-based economy that is highly exposed and sensitive to external price shocks. | en_EN |
| dc.description.abstract | Este estudio examina la causalidad entre la cuenta corriente y el superávit fiscal y el gasto fiscal para un país primario exportador, Perú. Usando data trimestral de un periodo de apertura comercial y financiera, los resultados rechazan la hipótesis de déficits gemelos. En cambio, la evidencia revela la existencia de una causalidad invertida, es decir, que la cuenta corriente causa a la cuenta fiscal. Sin embargo, a diferencia de la evidencia encontrada previamente en la literatura, para un periodo de un año, existe un efecto negativo porque el consumo fiscal no es suavizado cuando se presentan los choques positivos permanentes de cuenta corriente. En el corto plazo, la política fiscal no afecta a la cuenta corriente, pero incrementos en cuenta corriente aumentan la probabilidad de superar el límite mínimo del déficit fiscal. Esta evidencia es consistente con una pequeña economía abierta primaria exportadora que esté altamente expuesta y es sensible a los choques de precios externos. | es_ES |
| dc.identifier | https://revistas.esan.edu.pe/index.php/jefas/article/view/212 | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Sobrino, C. R. (2013). The twin deficits hypothesis and reverse causality: a short-run analysis of Peru. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 18(34), 9-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2077-1886(13)70018-0 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1016/S2077-1886(13)70018-0 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12640/2652 | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | |
| dc.publisher | Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones | |
| dc.publisher.country | PE | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | urn:issn:2218-0648 | |
| dc.relation.uri | https://revistas.esan.edu.pe/index.php/jefas/article/view/212/344 | |
| dc.rights | Attribution 4.0 International | * |
| dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | es_ES |
| dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 | |
| dc.subject | Current Account | en_EN |
| dc.subject | Time Series Models | en_EN |
| dc.subject | Budget Deficit | en_EN |
| dc.subject | Cuenta corriente | es_ES |
| dc.subject | Modelos de series de tiempo | es_ES |
| dc.subject | Déficit fiscal | es_ES |
| dc.subject.ocde | https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#5.02.04 | |
| dc.title | The twin deficits hypothesis and reverse causality: A short-run analysis of Peru | en_EN |
| dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | |
| dc.type.other | Artículo | |
| dc.type.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | |
| oaire.citation.endPage | 15 | |
| oaire.citation.issue | 34 | |
| oaire.citation.startPage | 9 | |
| oaire.citation.title | Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science | |
| oaire.citation.volume | 18 |
