Examinando por Autor "Lobão, Júlio"

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Solo Metadatos
Seasonal anomalies in the market for American depository receipts
(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2019-12-01) Lobão, Júlio
Purpose – The literature provides extensive evidence for seasonality in stock market returns but is almost non-existent concerning the potential seasonality in American depository receipts (ADRs). To fill this gap this paper aims to examine a number of seasonal effects in the market for ADRs. Design/methodology/approach – The paper examines four ADRs for the period from April 1999 to March 2017 to look for signs of eight important seasonal anomalies. The authors follow the standard methodology of using dummy variables for the time period of interest to capture excess returns. For comparison the same analysis on two US stock market indices is conducted. Findings – The results show the presence of a highly significant pre-holiday effect in all return series which does not seem to be justified by risk. Moreover turn-of-the-month effects monthly effects and day-of-the-week effects were detected in some of the ADRs. The seasonality patterns under analysis tended to be stronger in emerging market-based ADRs. Research limitations/implications – Overall the results show that significant seasonal patterns were present in the price dynamics of ADRs. Moreover the findings lend support to the idea that emerging markets are less efficient than developed stock markets. Originality/value – This is the most comprehensive study to date for indication of seasonal anomalies in the market for ADRs. The authors use an extensive sample that includes recent significant financial events such as the 2007/2008 financial crisis and consider ADRs with different characteristics which allows to draw comparisons between the differential price dynamics arising in developed market-based ADRs and in the ADRs whose underlying securities are traded in emerging markets.
Solo Metadatos
The use of the recognition heuristicas an investment strategy in European stock markets
(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2017-12-01) Lobão, Júlio; Pacheco, Luís; Pereira, Carlos
Purpose – People often face constraints such as a lack of time or information in taking decisions, which leads them to use heuristics. In these situations, fast and frugal rules may be useful for making adaptive decisions with fewer resources, even if it leads to suboptimal choices. When applied to financial markets, the recognition heuristic predicts that investors acquire the stocks that they are aware of, thereby inflating the price of the most recognized stocks. This paper aims to study the profitability against the market of the most recognized stocks in Europe. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the authors perform a survey and use Google Trends to study the profitability against the market of the most recognized stocks in Europe. Findings – The authors conclude that a recognition heuristic portfolio yields poorer returns than a market portfolio. In contrast, from the data collected on Google Trends, weak evidence was found that strong increases in companies monthly search volumes may lead to abnormal returns in the following month. Research limitations/implications – The applied investment strategy does not account for transaction costs, which may jeopardize its profitability given the fact that it is necessary to revise the portfolio on a monthly basis. Despite the results obtained, they are useful to understanding the performance of recognition heuristic strategies over a comprehensive time horizon, and it would be interesting to depict its viability during different market conditions. This analysis could provide additional information about a preferable scenario for employing our strategies and, ultimately, enhance the profitability of recognition heuristic strategies. Practical implications – Through the exhaustive analysis performed here on the recognition heuristic in the European stock market, it is possible to conclude that no evidence was found for the viability of exploring this type of strategy. In fact, the investors would always gain better returns when adopting a passive investment strategy. Therefore, it would be wise to assume that the European market presents at least a degree of efficiency where no investment would yield abnormal returns following the recognition heuristic. Originality/value – The main objective of this paper is to study the performance of the recognition heuristic in the financial markets and to contribute to the knowledge in this field. Although many authors have already studied this heuristic when applied to financial markets, there is a lack of consensus in the literature.