JEFAS Vol. 27 Nº 53 (2022)
URI permanente para esta colecciónhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12640/4141
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Ítem Solo Metadatos Pemex: oil price and financial management in the context of elevated fiscal burden(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2022-07-08) Tacuba, AngélicaPurpose: The article analyzes how oil price fluctuations are reflected in the management of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) based on its balance sheet (BS) and particularly how oil price fluctuations affect Pemex's corporate income. Design/methodology/approach: The author uses a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model with seven variables for the period 1977–2019. The first variable is the oil price and the others belong to Pemex's BS: total income, sales revenue, operating costs, investment, payment of taxes, duties and contributions (TDC) and the payment of interest on debt. Findings: The results show that in an environment of elevated fiscal burden that is of an excessive payment of tax by Pemex to the state, the price increases positively affected the income obtained from sales, but that surplus is used primarily to finance the fiscal expenses coming from the TDC, which is associated with the production and commercialization of hydrocarbons; physical and financial investment is disconnected from the evolution of price. Under a fiscal scheme that extracts, on average, 98.46% of Pemex's income, investment is not a priority. Practical implications: The findings of the research have important implications for Mexico's energy policy because of affecting the long-term financial and productive sustainability of Pemex. Originality/value: First, the study contributes to the literature on oil prices in Mexico by analyzing Pemex's fiscal burden from a corporate finance perspective, an area in which there are few rigorous studies. Second, the study contributes by providing quantitative support for the relationship between oil prices and BS variables through the VAR model.Ítem Solo Metadatos Benford's law for integrity tests of high-volume databases: a case study of internal audit in a state-owned enterprise(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2022-07-08) Morales, Héctor Rubén; Porporato, Marcela; Epelbaum, NicolasPurpose: The technical feasibility of using Benford's law to assist internal auditors in reviewing the integrity of high-volume data sets is analysed. This study explores whether Benford's distribution applies to the set of numbers represented by the quantity of records (size) that comprise the different tables that make up a state-owned enterprise's (SOE) enterprise resource planning (ERP) relational database. The use of Benford's law streamlines the search for possible abnormalities within the ERP system's data set, increasing the ability of the internal audit functions (IAFs) to detect anomalies within the database. In the SOEs of emerging economies, where groups compete for power and resources, internal auditors are better off employing analytical tests to discharge their duties without getting involved in power struggles. Design/methodology/approach: Records of eight databases of an SOE in Argentina are used to analyse the number of records of each table in periods of three to 12 years. The case develops step-by-step Benford's law application to test each ERP module records using Chi-squared (χ²) and mean absolute deviation (MAD) goodness-of-fit tests. Findings: Benford's law is an adequate tool for performing integrity tests of high-volume databases. A minimum of 350 tables within each database are required for the MAD test to be effective; this threshold is higher than the 67 reported by earlier researches. Robust results are obtained for the complete ERP system and for large modules; modules with less than 350 tables show low conformity with Benford's law. Research limitations/implications: This study is not about detecting fraud; it aims to help internal auditors red flag databases that will need further attention, making the most out of available limited resources in SOEs. The contribution is a simple, cheap and useful quantitative tool that can be employed by internal auditors in emerging economies to perform the first scan of the data contained in relational databases. Practical implications: This paper provides a tool to test whether large amounts of data behave as expected, and if not, they can be pinpointed for future investigation. It offers tests and explanations on the tool's application so that internal auditors of SOEs in emerging economies can use it, particularly those that face divergent expectations from antagonist powerful interest groups. Originality/value: This study demonstrates that even in the context of limited information technology tools available for internal auditors, there are simple and inexpensive tests to review the integrity of high-volume databases. It also extends the literature on high-volume database integrity tests and our knowledge of the IAF in Civil law countries, particularly emerging economies in Latin America.Ítem Solo Metadatos Impact of internal remittance on households' use of bank services: evidence from Vietnam(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2022-07-08) Nguyen, Thu Thi Hoai; Le, Hung Manh; Hoi, Le Quoc; Pham, Hang ThuPurpose: This study estimates impact of remittances from internal migration on households' use of bank services in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey and the two-stage least squares method (2SLS). Findings: The results show that receiving internal remittance increases households' probability of having bank accounts and using card services. However, these impacts are different between rural and urban areas. Research limitations/implications: The results of this study reveal the useful role of internal remittance in increasing the probability of households using bank services, thereby enhancing financial inclusion in Vietnam. Originality/value: Different from the previous studies, the purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of internal remittance on the use of bank services in Vietnam at the household level. This paper targets internal migration because it is the main type of migration in Vietnam. Besides, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first one that compares the role of internal remittance on households' use of bank services in rural and urban areas in Vietnam.Ítem Solo Metadatos Do public and internal debt cause income inequality? Evidence from Kenya(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2022-07-08) Obiero, Wilkista Lore; Topuz, Seher GülşahPurpose. This study aims to determine whether there is an effect of internal and public debt on income inequality in Kenya for the period 1970–2018. Design/methodology/approach: The relationship is examined by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model by Pesaran et al. (2001) and Toda Yamamoto causality by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Findings: Our findings suggest that both internal and public debt harm inequality in Kenya in the long term. Furthermore, a one-way causality from internal debt to income inequality is also obtained while no causality relationship is found to exist between public debt and income inequality. Based on these findings, the study recommends that to reduce income inequality levels in Kenya, other methods of financing other than debt financing should be preferred because debt financing is not pro-poor. Originality/value: This study is unique based on the fact that no previous paper has analysed the debt and inequality relationship in Kenya. To the best of our knowledge, this will be the first study to analyse the applicability of redistribution effect of debt in Kenya. The study is also different in that it provides separate analysis for public debt and internal debt on their effects on income inequality.Ítem Solo Metadatos Credit rating announcement and bond liquidity: the case of emerging bond markets(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2022-07-08) Saadaoui, Amir; Elammari, Anis; Kriaa, MohamedPurpose: This study examines the effect of the informational content of local credit rating announcements in emerging markets on the liquidity of their bond markets. This study analyses the liquidity of bonds in various emerging bond markets using a sample of nine countries: Argentina, Mexico, Peru, Hungary, Poland, Spain, Turkey, Hong Kong and Greece. The sample includes daily data on sovereign bonds that go from July 2009 to July 2017. The main focus is on the period before and after the sovereign debt crisis. This study notes that the bond liquidity is affected due to the sign of the rating granted by the rating agencies for each country. Design/methodology/approach: This study aims to question the sources of liquidity problem of sovereign bonds issued by the emerging countries. The study’s database consists of daily data of all nine emerging countries for the period from July 2009 to July 2017. Panel data were collected from the Datastream database. Findings: This study first directly tests the information content of bond ratings announcements and their effect on bond market liquidity. Next, the impact of rating changes on sovereign bond liquidity around the rating announcements is studied. Rating changes can affect sovereign bond's price, trading and liquidity around the announcement date. In particular the rating changes that move the bonds out of the investment grade category can elicit selling pressure or even fire sale of the fallen angels. Originality/value: This research aims to present data on the prices of sovereign bonds that react to changes in credit rating by studying the price movements around the announcement of changes in credit rating. The literature is very rich in studies on credit rating changes on stocks and corporate bonds, but this study is perhaps the first attempt on sovereign bonds.Ítem Solo Metadatos Macroeconomic determinants of fiscal policy in East Africa: a panel causality analysis(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2022-07-08) Mawejje, Joseph; Odhiambo, Nicholas M.Purpose: This study investigates the dynamic causality linkages between fiscal deficits and selected macroeconomic indicators in a panel of five East African Community countries. Design/methodology/approach: The research design is based on panel cointegration tests, panel cross-section dependence tests, panel error correction-based Granger causality tests and panel impulse response functions. Findings: Results show that there is long-run feedback causality among fiscal deficits and each of the variables include gross domestic product (GDP) growth, current account balance, interest rates, inflation, grants and debt service. Short-run Granger causality dynamics indicate that there is feedback causality between fiscal deficits and GDP growth; no causality between fiscal deficits and inflation; no causality between fiscal deficits and current account; no causality between fiscal deficits and interest rates; feedback causality between fiscal deficits and grants; and no causality between fiscal deficits and debt service. Impulse response functions show positive and significant impacts of current account balance, inflation and grants; negative and significant impacts of real GDP growth and lending rates; and insignificant effects of debt service. Research limitations/implications: While the study examines the dynamic causality between fiscal deficits and selected macroeconomic indicators in the East African Community, the analysis excludes South Sudan due to significant data limitations. Practical implications: In light of the East African Community's aspirations to achieve convergence on key macroeconomic targets, including the fiscal deficit, this research provides novel insights on fiscal policy determinants and causality dynamics. Social implications: The dynamic relationships between fiscal policy and macroeconomic variables may have social implications for welfare, equitable growth and distribution of resources. Originality/value: With a focus on the East African Community, this paper contributes to the literature on the macroeconomic determinants of fiscal deficits in regional economic communities.Ítem Solo Metadatos Impact of financial stress in advanced and emerging economies(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2022-07-08) Valerio Roncagliolo, Flavio César; Villamonte Blas, Ricardo NorbertoPurpose: The purpose of the paper is to examine the differences in the impact of financial stress in advanced and emerging economies. Design/methodology/approach: The authors employ a panel vector autoregression model (PVAR) for a comparative analysis of the relationship between financial stress, economic growth and monetary stability in 14 advanced and emerging economies. A homogeneous measure of financial stress is constructed and measured as an index that provides signals of stress episodes in an economy. Findings: The impact of financial stress shocks is greater on the economic growth of advanced economies; likewise, financial stress shocks are significant only in advanced economies. The interbank interest rate is negatively affected by financial stress in emerging economies. In general, the results show a clear view of the importance of financial stability and the economic relevance of financial stress measures in the context of macro-prudential regulation. Originality/value: The results can be extended to monetary policy to implement measures that mitigate the impact of future financial crises.Ítem Solo Metadatos Health expenditures (total, public and private) and per capita income in the BRICS+T: panel bootstrap causality analysis(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2022-07-08) Canbay, Serif; Kirca, MustafaPurpose: The study aims to determine whether there is a bidirectional causality relationship between health expenditures and per capita income in Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey (BRICS+T). Design/methodology/approach: For that purpose, the 2000–2018 period data of the variables were tested with the Kónya (2006) panel causality test. Additionally, the causality relationships between public and private health expenditures and per capita income were also investigated in the study. Findings: According to the analysis results, there is no statistically significant causality relationship from total health expenditures and public health expenditures to per capita income in the relevant countries. Besides, there is a unidirectional causality relationship from private health expenditures to per capita income only in Turkey. On the other hand, a unidirectional causality relationship from per capita income to total health expenditures in China, Russia, Turkey and South Africa and from per capita income to public health expenditures in India, Russia, Turkey and South Africa were determined. Consequently, a causality relationship from per capita income to private health expenditures was found out in Russia and Turkey. Originality/value: The variables are tested for the first time for BRICS+T countries, vis-à-vis the period under consideration and the method used.Ítem Solo Metadatos Reassessing the feasibility of adopting dollarization in Latin America(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2022-07-08) Padilla, LeónPurpose: This paper analyses the possibility of Latin America's (LA) major economies adopting dollarization, considering that in the last decade macroeconomic instability has once again challenged the ability of certain economies to properly manage their own currency. Design/methodology/approach: To determine the feasibility of adopting the US dollar as official currency, the author uses the framework of optimum currency area (OCA) theory, since, in fact, dollarization is an incomplete monetary union. The author uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to identify what type of structural shock — country-specific, regional or global — prevails in LA economies. For this purpose, the US output is used to represent the global output and determine how the shocks of the US influence the output trajectory of each LA nation. The higher the influence of the US product, the lower the costs of adopting the US dollar. Findings: The results of the variance decomposition show that the influence of the US shocks in the gross domestic product (GDP) trajectory of LA countries has significantly decreased over the last two decades, even in the currently dollarized economies. The estimates for Venezuela and Argentina show that the importance of US shocks in the trajectory of their GDP is low. Therefore, the cost of adopting the US dollar as the official currency would be high. Originality/value: In view of hyperinflation and macroeconomic imbalances in certain LA nations, the dollarization debate has resurfaced in recent years. However, the literature that empirically evaluates the feasibility of adopting dollarization as a monetary system under current economic conditions is limited.Ítem Solo Metadatos Using single impact metrics to assess research in business and economics: why institutions should use multi-criteria systems for assessing research(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2022-07-08) Olavarrieta, SergioPurpose: Despite the general recommendation of using a combination of multiple criteria for research assessment and faculty promotion decisions, the raise of quantitative indicators is generating an emerging trend in Business Schools to use single journal impact factors (IFs) as key (unique) drivers for those relevant school decisions. This paper aims to investigate the effects of using single Web of Science (WoS)-based journal impact metrics when assessing research from two related disciplines: Business and Economics, and its potential impact for the strategic sustainability of a Business School. Design/methodology/approach: This study collected impact indicators data for Business and Economics journals from the Clarivate Web of Science database. We concentrated on the IF indicators, the Eigenfactor and the article influence score (AIS). This study examined the correlations between these indicators and then ranked disciplines and journals using these different impact metrics. Findings: Consistent with previous findings, this study finds positive correlations among these metrics. Then this study ranks the disciplines and journals using each impact metric, finding relevant and substantial differences, depending on the metric used. It is found that using AIS instead of the IF raises the relative ranking of Economics, while Business remains basically with the same rank. Research limitations/implications: This study contributes to the research assessment literature by adding substantial evidence that given the sensitivity of journal rankings to particular indicators, the selection of a single impact metric for assessing research and hiring/promotion and tenure decisions is risky and too simplistic. This research shows that biases may be larger when assessment involves researchers from related disciplines – like Business and Economics – but with different research foundations and traditions. Practical implications: Consistent with the literature, given the sensibility of journal rankings to particular indicators, the selection of a single impact metric for assessing research, assigning research funds and hiring/promotion and tenure decisions is risky and simplistic. However, this research shows that risks and biases may be larger when assessment involves researchers from related disciplines – like Business and Economics – but with different research foundations and trajectories. The use of multiple criteria is advised for such purposes. Originality/value: This is an applied work using real data from WoS that addresses a practical case of comparing the use of different journal IFs to rank-related disciplines like Business and Economics, with important implications for faculty tenure and promotion committees and for research funds granting institutions and decision-makers.
