JEFAS Vol. 25 Nº 50 (2020)
URI permanente para esta colecciónhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12640/4138
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Ítem Solo Metadatos Impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market in Pakistan(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2020-12-01) Shabbir, Aiza; Kousar, Shazia; Batool, Syeda AzraPurpose: The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses the data on gold prices, stock exchange and oil prices for the period 1991–2016. This study applied descriptive statistics, augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlation and autoregressive distributed lag test. Findings: The data analysis results showed that gold and oil prices have a significant impact on the stock market. Research limitations/implications: Following empirical evidence of this study, the authors recommend that investors should invest in gold because the main reason is that hike in inflation reduces the real value of money, and people seek to invest in alternative investment avenues like gold to preserve the value of their assets and earn additional returns. This suggests that investment in gold can be used as a tool to decline inflation pressure to a sustainable level. This study was restricted to use small sample data owing to the availability of data from 1991 to 2017 and could not use structural break unit root tests with two structural break and structural break cointegration approach, as these tests require high-frequency data set. Originality/value: This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in gold, oil and stock market. In the current era, gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day, and investors think that stock returns may or may not be affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focusses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help investment institutions or portfolio managers.Ítem Solo Metadatos Examining the differential impact of monetary policy in India: a policy simulation approach(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2020-12-01) Bhat, Sajad Ahmad; Kamaiah, Bandi; Acharya, DebashisPurpose: Though an accumulating body of study has analysed monetary policy transmission in India, there are few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. Against this backdrop, this study aims to analyse the differential impact of monetary policy on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and their components along with the general price level in India. Design/methodology/approach: The study develops a structural macroeconometric model, which is primarily aggregate and eclectic in nature. The generalized method of movements is used for estimation of behavioural equations, while a Gauss–Seidel algorithm is used for model simulation purposes. Findings: The paper presents the results of two policy simulations from the estimated model that highlight the differential impact of monetary policy. The first one, hike in the policy rate by 5% and second is a reduction in bank credit to the commercial sector by 10%. The results from the first policy simulation experiment reveal that interest hike has a significant negative impact on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and general price level. However, the maximum impact is borne by investment demand and imports followed by private consumption. While as among the components of aggregate supply maximum impact is born by infrastructure output followed by the manufacturing and services sector with the agriculture sector found to be insensitive in nature. The results from the second policy simulation experiment revealed that pure monetary shocks have a significant negative impact on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and general price level. However, the maximum impact is born by private consumption and imports followed by investment demand. While as among components of aggregate supply maximum impact is borne by infrastructure followed by the manufacturing and services sector with the agriculture sector found to be insensitive in nature. From both policy simulation experiments, the study highlighted the relative importance of the income absorption approach as opposed to the expenditure switching effect. Practical implications: The results obtained in this study provides a strong framework for design the monetary policy framework. The results are in a view of the differential impact of monetary policy action among the components of both aggregate demand and aggregate supply. This reflection of differential impact has immense significance for the macroeconomic stabilization as the central bank will have to weigh the varying repercussion of its actions on different sectors. For instance, the decline in output after monetary tightening might be conceived as mild from an overall perspective, but it can be appreciable for some sectors. This differential influence will have an implication for policy design to care for distributional aspects, which otherwise could be neglected/disregarded. Similarly, the output decline may be as a result of either consumption postponement or a temporary slowdown in investment. However, the one emanating due to investment decline will have lasting growth implications compared to a decline in consumer demand. In addition, the relative strength of expenditure changing or expenditure switching policies of trade balance stabilization may have varying consequences in the aftermath of monetary policy shock. Accordingly information on the relative sensitiveness/insensitiveness of different sectors/ components of aggregate demand towards monetary policy actions furnish valuable insights to monetary authorities in framing appropriate policy. Originality/value: The work carried out in the present paper is motivated by the fact that although a number of studies have examined the monetary transmission mechanism in India, a very few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. However, to the best of the knowledge, there is no such studies, which have examined the differential impact of monetary policy in the structural macroeconometric framework. The paper will enrich the existing literature by providing a detailed account of the differential impact of monetary policy among the components of both aggregate demand and aggregate supply in response to an interest rate hike, as well as a decrease in the money supply.Ítem Solo Metadatos Causality and dynamic relationships between exchange rate and stock market indices in BRICS countries Panel/GMM and ARDL analyses(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2020-12-01) Mroua, Mourad; Trabelsi, LotfiPurpose: This paper aims to investigate simultaneously the causality and the dynamic links between exchange rates and stock market indices. It attempts to identify the short- and long-term effect of the US dollar on major stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South-Africa (BRICS) nations. Design/methodology/approach: This paper applies a new methodology combining the panel generalized method of moments model and the panel auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to investigate the existence of a causal short-/long-run relationships and dynamic dependence among all stock market returns and exchanges rates changes of BRICS countries. Findings: Results show that exchange rate changes have a significant effect on the past and the current volatility of the BRICS stock indices. Besides, ARDL estimations reveal that exchange rate movements have a significant effect on short- and long-term stocks market indices of all BRICS countries. Originality/value: The findings have implications for policymakers and market participants who try to manage the exchange rate will have a different dose of intervention if they know that the effects of currency depreciation are different than appreciation. These results have important implications that investors should take into account in frequency-varying exchange rates and stock returns and regulators should consider developing sound policy measures to prevent financial risk.Ítem Solo Metadatos Loss aversion, overconfidence of investors and their impact on market performance evidence from the US stock markets(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2020-12-01) Bouteska, Ahmed; Regaieg, BoutheinaPurpose: The current study aims to investigate the impacts of two behavioral biases, namely, loss aversion and overconfidence on the performance of US companies. First, the impact of loss aversion on the economic performance of companies was assessed. Second, the impact of overconfidence on market performance was discussed. Design/methodology/approach: This study used around 6,777 quarterly observations on the population of US-insured industrial and services companies over the 2006-2016 period. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression in two panel data models were used to test the hypotheses formulated for the study. Findings: It was documented that the loss-aversion bias negatively affects the economic performance of companies and this is achieved for both sectors. In contrast, the findings suggest that overconfidence positively affects market performance of industrial firms but negatively affects market performance in service firms. Further robust evidence was found that overconfidence bias seems to be dominant, and hence, investors may tend to be more overconfident rather than more loss-averse. Originality/value: This research can be extended by focusing on the following question: What is the impact of the contradictory (positive and negative) effects of an investor's loss aversion and overconfidence on the US company performance in case of realization of a stock market crisis or stock market crash?Ítem Solo Metadatos Financial literacy and behavioural biases of individual investors: empirical evidence of Pakistan stock exchange(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2020-12-01) Rasool, Nosheen; Ullah, SafiPurpose: Financial literacy is a crucial element of financial decision-making, exerting significant influence on the behaviour of individual investors, while making budgetary, house financing, stock investing and retirement planning decisions. So, the purpose of this research is to determine the relationship between financial literacy and behavioural biases of individual investors in Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach: In this research paper, a sample of 300 observations was obtained through questionnaires from individual investors residing in Lahore and invested in Pakistan Stock Exchange. The data obtained, was passed through Cronbach’s Alpha and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA). The hypothesis developed for the research was tested by Pearson’s Chi-square and Ordinal Regression Analysis. Findings: The hypothesis testing of the research concluded that there is a negative association between financial literacy and behavioural biases of individual investors. So, it means; with an increase in level of financial literacy, the likelihood of investor facing behavioural biases reduces. It also appeared that male respondents have more financial literacy than female respondents. Originality/value: Previous studies in the field of finance, identified different factors causing the financial behaviour of individual investor of Pakistan, and also focused on level of financial literacy in Pakistan, but these studies have not emphasized the crucial relationship between financial literacy and behavioural biases of individual investors. Thus, the unique empirical analysis developed in this paper has accentuated the financial literacy as a factor that mitigates behavioural biases of individual investor.Ítem Solo Metadatos Identifying fiscal inflation in India: some recent evidence from an asymmetric approach(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2020-12-01) Bhat, Javed Ahmad; Sharma, Naresh KumarPurpose: Among the many factors fueling the inflationary tendencies in an economy such as monetary shocks, structural shocks, demand shocks, external shocks and demographic changes, the issue of inflation (INF) has also been found to be related to fiscal policy decisions of the government. The purpose of this study is to investigate the inflationary tendencies in India particularly from the fiscal point of view. The study also examines the influence of other potential determinants such as output growth rate, interest rate, tradeopenness (TO) and oil price inflation (OPI). Design/methodology/approach: To examine the dynamic nature of association between fiscal deficit and inflation, the study applies the Toda-Yamamoto (1995) test and Breitung and Candelon (2006) test to investigate the nature of causality in time and frequency domain frameworks. In addition, to scrutinize the possibility of a long-run association, that too from an asymmetric point of view, the study applies a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed lag model (NARDL) given by Shin et al. (2014). Finally, non-linear cumulative dynamic multipliers are used to trace the traverse between disequilibrium position of short-run and subsequent long-run equilibrium of the system. Findings: The authors found a unidirectional causality from fiscal deficit to inflation in case of time domain analysis and no feedback causality is reported. However, in case of frequency domain design, causality from fiscal deficit to inflation is found at low frequencies only, i.e. no short-run causality is established and hence dynamic nature of the relationship between the two variables is vindicated. Using NARDL model, the results document the existence of an asymmetric long-run direct association between fiscal deficit and inflation. However, an increase in deficit is found to be more inflationary and a decrease affects the inflation with a lower magnitude. The asymmetric impact of fiscal deficit on inflation can be explained through the existence of liquidity constraints, consumption-investment downward inflexibility and the downward price stickiness. Contractionary monetary policy action is found to be more effective than an expansionary one, signifying the asymmetric influence of monetary policy actions on the inflation of India. Similarly, in a supply-constrained economy with downward price rigidity, the authors found an asymmetric impact of output growth and output decline on inflation. As regard to the trade-openness, although an asymmetry is reported, the signs refute the validation of Romer (1993) hypothesis. Finally, the impact of oil price inflation on the inflationary pressures is according to theory but the coefficients are devoid of statistical significance. Practical implications: These results indicate some important policy recommendations. Fiscal consolidation strategy should be executed in an appreciable manner to achieve the sound fiscal health and lower INF. The disciplined fiscal strategy would also be imperative for an effective monetary policy. Monetary authorities should possess noticeable credibility to manage the macroeconomic system and policy stances should be implemented according to requirements of the economy. Growth in output should be encouraged to have twofold benefits to the economy – reducing INF on the one hand and fiscal deficits on the other. Originality/value: The study contributes to the existing literature in the following ways. First, taking note of dynamic nature of the relationship between these two variables, the study examined the deficit INF nexus in a dynamic and asymmetric framework. The novelty of the study is ensured by the very nature of it is the first study in case of India to identify the fiscal INF in an asymmetric configuration. The authors applied a NARDL model, given by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the existence of any cointegrating relationship in an asymmetric paradigm. Second, the nature of causality between fiscal deficit and INF has been examined in a time domain and FD framework to portray precisely the casual interactions between these two variables in the short-run and long run. The study will, therefore, enrich the existing literature along the asymmetric lines.Ítem Solo Metadatos Intra-banking competition in Ecuador: new evidence using panel data approach(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2020-12-01) Solano, Javier; Camino Mogro, Segundo; Armijos Bravo, GracePurpose: Banks are institutions that inject money in the economy and help to boost it when there are problems in some markets, especially in productive sectors. In this way, analysing the competition in this sector is an important tool for policymakers as non-competitive behaviour could affect the financial system and economy. The purpose of this paper is to measure the degree of competition in the Ecuadorian private banking sector divided by size, from 2000 to 2015, using panel data collected by the official regulator institution. Design/methodology/approach: The authors applied the model proposed by Panzar and Rosse (1987) and its H-statistic using a reduced price and revenue equation estimated by pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effects, random effects, feasible generalised fixed effects and panel correction standard errors (PCSE). Findings: The authors show that given the presence of some problems in data such as heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation, the most appropriate technique is PCSE. The authors also found robust evidence supporting that large banks compete in a monopolistic market, small and medium-sized banks operate in monopolistic competition, and Ecuadorian small, medium-sized and large banks stay in long-run equilibrium. Originality/value: This paper contributes to the actual literature of competition degree in two ways. First, different from traditional papers, we do not control by size; so, we divided the analysis by size, because in Ecuador and also in many developing countries, bank’s competition is different for each group of size because the levels of liquidity, risk and other indicators are different from one group to another. Second, we show the robustness of the results using a scaled and unscaled equation, using many controls and using five methods to contrast the competition degree.Ítem Solo Metadatos Boardroom female participation, intellectual capital efficiency and firm performance in developing countries Evidence from Nigeria(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2020-12-01) Isola, Wakeel Atanda; Adeleye, Bosede Ngozi; Olohunlana, Aminat OlayinkaPurpose: This paper aims to focus on the implications of female participation in the board on the management of intellectual capital for improved firm performance, particularly in the Nigerian-banking sector. It uses the resource dependency theory to ascertain the link between female board participation, intellectual capital and performances. Design/methodology/approach: The paper adopted longitudinal panel analysis to analyze data obtained from the annual reports of selected listed commercial banks in Nigeria. The random effect regression was adopted as the method of analysis. The decision was informed by conducting the Hausman test. Findings: The results revealed that female board participation has insignificant influence on bank performances, whereas intellectual capital efficiencies positively contribute to bank performances. However, significant influences were exhibited upon the interactions of female board participation and components of intellectual capital efficiency on bank performances. Research limitations/implications: Because of the focus of the research work, which is centered on the banking sector of the Nigerian economy, the findings of the research may not be sufficiently suitable for other sectors of the country. This, however, leaves the coast for other researchers to extend research on intellectual capital and gender participation to other non-financial sectors and other countries. Practical implications: The outcome implies that there is a need for increased female participation in the boardroom to harness optimal intellectual capital efficiencies for firm performance. It further confirmed that intellectual capital unlocks the hidden treasure of firms.Originality/value – The paper identifies and fulfills a niche on the need to extend the frontier of knowledge on intellectual capital and gender equity.Ítem Solo Metadatos Environmental determinants of destination competitiveness and its Tourism Attractions-Basics Context, A-B-C, indicators: a review, conceptual model and propositions(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2020-12-01) Manrai, Lalita A.; Manrai, Ajay K.; Friedeborn, StefaniePurpose: The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive review of the literature and develop a model of the determinants, indicators and effects of destination competitiveness (DC), as well as several propositions. Design/methodology/approach: This study thoroughly reviewed extant literature to develop a conceptual model and propositions. Findings: Two key findings are listed below. First, 12 different environmental factors are identified and 12 propositions are developed linking these environmental factors to DC. Second, a new indicator of DC is developed, namely, Tourism Attractions-Basics-Context (TABC) model. The TABC model is simple and directly taps into the benefits tourists seek in a destination. Research limitations/implications – Directions for future research are discussed in detail in the paper. Practical implications – Managerial implications are discussed in detail in the paper. Originality/value: The extant research on the topic of DC has been rather fragmented and incomplete in scope. The research presented in this paper addresses these limitations.Ítem Solo Metadatos Hybrid cluster analysis of customer segmentation of sea transportation users(Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2020-12-01) Cahyana, Bambang Eka; Nimran, Umar; Utami, Hamidah Nayati i; Iqbal, MohammadPurpose: The purpose of this study is to apply hybrid cluster analysis in classifying PT Pelindo I customers based on the level of customer satisfaction with passenger services of PT Pelindo I. Design/methodology/approach: Hybrid cluster analysis is a combination of hierarchical and nonhierarchical cluster analysis. This hybrid cluster analysis appears to optimize the advantages of hierarchical and non-hierarchical methods simultaneously to obtain optimal grouping. Hybrid cluster analysis itself has high flexibility because it can combine all hierarchical and non-hierarchical methods without any limits in the order of analysis used. Findings: The results showed that 72% of PT Pelindo I customers felt PT Pelindo I service was special, while the remaining 28% felt PT Pelindo I service was good. Originality/value: In total, 117 customers of PT Pelindo I were involved in a study using the nonprobability sampling method.
